The property market has been nuts for a long time, with all-time highs for sale prices in October of 2024. So you’ve been waiting around for the perfect time with an eye on a substantial drop in cost versus finding the right property. But, in recent months, there HAS been a substantial drop in cost (upwards of 30% in places like Durham) and availability (a record number of condos for sale in the GTA), which is setting up this summer to be the ideal time to buy.
Will Property Prices Go Down Even More in 2026?
It’s not likely there will be a lot more downward movement, as there has already been a big dip, and CREA has revised their 2026 forecast to project a 1.5% annual price gain with only a 1% increase in sales. That can be tied to a soft first quarter, rising fixed rates, and trade-related economic uncertainty. The even bigger housing crash that was being projected seems to be on hold, but prices are still lower than they’ve been in years for the time being.
The moral is to buy now if you’ve been waiting, or you might be waiting a lot longer for a 50% cut that never comes. You have all of these first-time home buyers who’ve been waiting for their opportunity for the past four years, seeing the big dips in the past few months, and now watching the prices consolidate.
That means a short window of opportunity. The balanced conditions we are seeing right now are a coiled spring and once the feeding frenzy starts, you don’t want to be out of the pool. Bad reference, nobody wants to be eaten by piranhas, but you get the gist.
The buyer-friendly conditions are tied to regions with the most inventory, which means Ontario and BC. These markets are set to lead the charge as they’ve been famous (or infamous) for being over valued and nearly impossible for the average family to buy without going house poor on the mortgage.
What Is the Hardest Month to Sell Property?
Well that’s the thing, summer used to be the slowest season for real estate, but right now conditions are actually reasonable going into the summer, so can we expect to see a big boom of sales? In past years, March to June was the optimal time to sell, but since selling prices are down and holding now that June has arrived, that might shift. It’s a buyer’s market going into June. Where July and August used to be the time where seller urgency was high and competition amongst buyers was low, this summer is shaping up to be a bit different. If prices remain low through the summer, you’ll have the fence sitters wanting to pull the trigger in August because prices might read as if it’s not going lower, and they’ll get nervous.
This is not financial advice, but more of a musing on the current climate. Four years of unreasonable and rising prices needed a break. And we finally got one. So why aren’t sales through the roof?
It’s traditional for sellers to avoid listing from the end of July to the end of August, because buyers love that window. Bidding wars are minimal, there’s more time to think, and you don’t worry about crazy offers from Air BnB flippers from out of the country swooping in and taking away your dream spot.
Spring is when sellers have traditionally been in control, and summer has always been the buyer’s time, and this year that window is looking a lot bigger and more slanted towards buyers as inventory is skyhigh and people are struggling to cover their rising mortgage rates.
Is It a Good Time to Buy Property Now in Canada?
The answer comes down to the buyer, whether now is a good time to buy property. The graphs show a bottoming out, and this is predicted to be followed by consolidation and then mild growth. This expands the buying window at these prices.
Buyers who succeed are the ones who move when things feel uncertain, but the costs are relatively good. Timing the bottom or top is just gambling, at the end of the day. And since we are in a prolonged period of low, the confidence from competitive buyers will certainly come as time wears on.
Will Property Prices Increase in 2026?
Our research is showing that yes, but just mild increases in cost. TD bank initially forecast a 4.1% increase in average home prices for 2026 and, while that has been revised downward, a bounceback is still expected. Sales are expected to go up 9.6% year over year in 2027, so the time is now, according to TD.
What Will the Mortgage Rates Be in 2026?
Rates are actually pretty stable right now. And they aren’t supposed to go any lower. The Bank of Canada is expected to hold the policy rate near 2.25% for the rest of 2026, so the only way this would change is if there were issues on trade, the U.S. or other global shocks.
If we look at the fixed rate side of the coin, they are actually going up. Some forecasts are anticipating that the 5-year mortgage will increase by 0.25% to as high as 0.5% by year end, which means rates as high as 5%, and this is tied to any volatility in the bond market. Again, all research is pointing at this summer being an optimal window for a good deal on real estate.
As for variable rates, they are always lower than fixed rates, so we are sitting at 4% to 4.5% with the big lenders. That’s certainly not as bad as during the pandemic, where rates were sub -2%, of course, but nowhere near the insane rates they were pushing in 2023. Waiting for another Covid rate cut (Hantavirus anyone?) is not a sound strategy, and the pros will tell you the same.
What’s so Special About Summer, Specifically?
This summer, in particular, is an especially auspicious alignment of high volume, low prices, mortgage rates going up and forcing people to sell quickly and emotionally. Until the rest of the pack figures this out, it’s a veritable buffet of options. Come Late July and August, when there has historically been lower competition, we expect the market to actually get more competitive.
It’s not hype, its numbers, reporting and historical comparison of human behaviour. Those who win, in our experience, move when conditions are good, not perfect. Everybody knows that waiting for perfect is waiting for never.
TL;DR: Glasslake’s One-Minute Version
- Property prices should rise marginally in 2026 — no crash, but no surge
- Summer is historically when seller competition peaks and competition falls
- Mortgage rates are holding steady in the 4% to 5% range
- Waiting for 2027 means buying into a more competitive market with significantly higher sales activity, even if prices stay the same
- If you’ve been on the fence, this summer might be the nudge you needed
With all our content, we aim to provide information to better understand the mortgage landscape for both brokers and borrowers. But every situation is unique, and as such our content should not be taken as financial advice or predictions on the future of the market, so feel free to reach out to us, and we can walk through your specific circumstances to see if there’s a fit for working together. Let’s make a deal.
Contact sales@glasslake.ca to learn more.
